Price Suggestion
~62.39 ref
Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
55 votes up
67 votes down
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Item Snapshot made
  • 51 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13435110255 12907765083
  • 51 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Timed Drop 13434052733
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13439056648 13065451588
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13436014068 13262870654
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13431045510 11349565503
  • 51.22 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13418519097 12485634820
  • 51.22 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13439024340 13103553792
  • 51.22 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13432375546 10063512947
  • 51.22 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13422185604 9749810954
  • 51.22 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13431366153 10026835417
  • 51.33 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 51.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
48,052 sold recently

This suggestion was marked as insufficient evidence and closed by Blaze.xTH3RM4Lx.

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Nature is healing!

Lowest seller on BP is 51 refined with 229 in stock

Highest buyer is 51.33, however this was 8 hours ago and the seller hasn't been online for that same time. Also the buyer doesn't have any more refined in his/her inventory!


Scrap.TF is currently buying for 50.22 ref and selling for 58.66, however this is not representative for the actual value.

Same goes for STN. Buying for 50.55 and selling for 54.55.

    You need evidence – especially a lot for keys since it’s a currency.

    Pricing them will be very difficult right now since they keep going down. Right now, many bots are selling them at 50 ref!

    I’m excited that keys are finally going down again. I wonder if they will keep going down – and if so, how far will it go?

    Will they suddenly spike back up to 55 ref or higher again, or will they reach low 40s?

      I’m hoping we can get to 2.33 ref, it’s likely unrealistic but not impossible. With Halloween coming that might be the boost we need to get to sub 40, possibly sub 30. And if we got some sort of Holiday Season exclusive unusuals for taunts and hats we might see a great decrease in key inflation as the economy gets more active.

    Scrap.TF prices are purposefully shit in hopes to make a profit, not sure even mentioning their prices had much of a purpose.

    Keys seem to be fluctuating too much to decide on a solid price for now, just yesterday they were selling for 55 ref

      inflation moment

      Nature is healing!

        I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped out of this range in another 12 hours, tbh. Even as I write this the buy list has crashed hard to 50.44 ref.

          Yeah, same. But I think that's a good thing :)

            In general? Absolutely. For getting this suggestion accepted? Not so much, imo.

              Yeah, I meant in general.

          you'll need to provide actual sales here rather than just buyers/sellers.

            Since there's only a scrap difference, isn't this practically considered a sale?

              none of these are actual sales they are just uncompleted sell/buy listings. you will need to gather evidence to show that these have indeed been selling for the suggested price

            this is gonna take down because of no proof again and list bruh

              Saw bots get on 50refs sharp, tomorrow will be 49 if this goes on... and it definitly looks like it will go on as bots will keep on shortcutting themselves while humans enjoy the spectacle.

                i find funny despite everyone selling liket at 50 refs not a single suggestion is aproved regardless everyone selling like that no idea how it works anyways but i think mostly the drop of price is because scrap and stn dont stop to fucking fighting if one site sells 1 scrap less the other one make it less then the other one then theo other and like that until they finally reached the minimum lmao

                  The reason suggestions, even those with more substantial proof than this one, are rejected, is the fact that the suggestion must reflect de current market. With the market being a bit volatile as it is right now, it is hard to get an accurate price suggestion going.

                  Lacks proof. Besides buyers and sellers are now sitting at 50.55-50.66 ref.

                    Prices are still going down (thankfully) so maybe close this for now and make a new one once it slows down more. (:

                      Can someone please explain why this is happenning? Is it because Valve released the summer update and more players returned to TF2?

                        A record number of players would mean more of everything in circulation, especially the main currency of the game, refined metal.

                        That coupled with keys being at an incredibly inflated price currently, they aren't rarer or more common than they were years ago as they've always had an infinite supply on the in-game store. There's no reason they should carry such a high value

                          Except there is a reason.

                          If you look at sales of keys on the Steam Community Market or on external markets, where they are essentially traded for cash, keys have been pretty stable in price throughout the years. This would indicate that the amount of keys circulating in the economy is pretty much the same at all times.

                          The amount of ref in the economy however keeps on increasing evermore with weapon drops. Therefore its value will decrease more and more overtime, as generally the demand for ref isn't that high, let alone increasing. In other words: there is a surplus of ref on the market.

                          So the main reason the value of keys expressed in ref keeps increasing is likely precisely that. It's not that keys are getting worth more, it's that ref is getting worth less.

                            If you look at this sites data, you can see that the amount of keys is constantly increasing at a very steady pace. There were 1,293,050 keys in existence on the 30th of August 2020, and reached a high of 2,171,644 on the 6th of June 2022, just before the site had a data failure and lost track of all items.

                            More and more keys are being printed, while the same goes for refined as you mentioned. With the first point in mind, it makes little to no sense that their refined price is going up when millions are added into circulation over the span of two years. I hope keys can drop to a reasonable price soon enough, these recent days have been a fantastic start

                              As I said, it is but one factor to the equation. There are of course other factors at play. Otherwise currently the price of a key wouldn't be dropping.

                              Besides, let's not forget that a few months ago, we also had key prices drop from about 70 ref to 45 ref. And later keys went back up to as high as 70. Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of being able to exchange metal for keys at a more affordable rate, but the markets are the markets. Not much we can do about it.

                            I don't think that's enough to explain it.

                            A record number of players would presumably increase the amount and demand for everything an equivalent amount, so nothing should change in price. Except, more people playing means more weapon/crate drops, which means more metal, and so the price of keys should increase. I don't know why they'd be decreasing.

                            Only things I'd expect to decrease in price because of that would be, like, ultra-rare collectors items, where no new collectors join the game to care about it, but old accounts which had them by chance start playing and thus introduce more to the economy? Even that story sounds unlikely, I'd think new/returning players would still be collectors.

                              I was merely explaining the general trend in key price expressed in ref, which is an increase. The current devaluation as expressed in ref probably means someone is buying up quite a bit of metal, or in other words: taking metal of the market. That's just my guess.

                              An increase in players, meaning people playing the TF2 Summer 2023 Update, doesn't mean there is an increase in people trading TF2 items. Players do not equate to traders. So that really doesn't do much for demand.

                              And yes, there would be an increase in crate drops, but those would be Summer 2023 Cosmetic Cases and Summer 2023 War Paint Cases, which require another key than the Mann Co. Supply Crate Key to open. Meaning that on this front too, the demand for keys (of the Mann Co. Supply Crate variant) doesn't really increase.

                                Well, you got it pretty wrong there. If a ton of new players join the game, why would the current players sell their items? The incentive to continue playing just increased due to more players and new content. I think you are also overestimating the amount of metal that actually enters the market from metal drops. Let's just go with an example. Say 100,000 unique players started playing again, and they have received an average of 10 weapon drops over the past weeks. That's one million ref, or around $37,000 adjusted to todays value. That would also be the equivalent of every one of those players spending $0,37 each. That number is significantly higher. The demand for new items by far outweighs the additional ref being added to the circulating supply. It is not like weapons dropped is metal either - they actually need to be crafted and traded away to add to the circulating supply. Chances are big that people with smaller inventories keep the weapons if they get one they need and the bigger inventories just deletes them or forgets about them.

                                Key price isnt what is fluctating here either, its the price of refined. Key to ref ratio going down is the same as metal going up in price. Key price is almost always the same.

                                Also to add to the other comment - no one is buying up ref. There's no reliable way to speculate on refined since it is hard to store a significant amount and pretty stupid to begin with, since it will trend downwards over time due to infinite supply. Players do not equate to traders, but they are certainly customers. Traders need refined to buy items to sell to customers to meet the demand, and thats why they undercut each other to get ref. Without ref its very hard to source items to resell. The demand has skyrocketed since the update due to the influx of new players.

                                  I am not sure if even every player is a customer. Potential customer? Sure. But I don't know if every player is interested in buying fancy cosmetics. Although it is probably fair to assume that the amount of customers has increased with the current increase in players. And with that the demand for items, especially new ones.

                                  In regard to someone buying up ref, that was a mere simplification of the facts. As you yourself explained much better, without ref it is very hard to source items to resell. With the increased amount in players and thus customers, demand for items has increased as well. And consequently the demand for ref.

                                    Yep, also saw that I got my text mixed up a bit, but it still proves my point even more with accurate ones. (should be 55k ref, not 1 million lol, 1 million weapons yes) so that would only be like $2000 worth of metal added.

                                    And of course I did not mean that every player is a customer, but if you split $2000 in refined added(just an example though, not accurate number) between 100k players it will have a hard impact on the refined circulation!

                                    Also important that this is only temporary, if valve doesn't release anything good these following months/years the refined price will decrease again. My personal guess is that the halloween update(if they release one) will keep the pressure tight on the refined circulation for a few months more but I'd not be surprised to see refined dropping heavily early 2024.

                                    I didn't mean to imply that new players joining would make current players sell their items. I meant that new players joining means that those inventories become active; they'd likely sell their existing items to buy new ones.

                                    While it may depend on whether the average new/returning player spends more in RMT than they introduce in stale inventories/new drops, I'm not even certain why higher RMT would lead to higher prices of ref specifically (and not, say, keys/buds/unusuals). Is the idea that they're injecting money, but just spending it on a bunch of cheap things?

                                    And when talking about "key price" I meant in comparison to refined, I know that the real money value is pretty static there.

                                    But hey, fair point on the amount of new metal joining the economy being negligible. I really should've mathed that out.

                              let it DROP

                                in 1 year, low tier trading might actually be viable!

                                  its still is even if the keys price increased

                                  Sellers are down to 50.11 ref already