Price Suggestion
~62.39 ref
Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
285 votes up
122 votes down
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Classifieds
  • 49.77 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13454341340 13267337557
  • 49.77 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Timed Drop 13460872176
  • 49.77 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13452344722 12268082662
  • 49.77 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13425297246 10007377792
  • 49.77 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13446659601 11345741543
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13460872379 10247182789
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13456724412 13338657711
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13460648436 12883177111
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13423021354 11225453843
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key 5 Purchased 13408032992 13349930881
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50.11 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
  • 50 ref
    Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
$2.21
95,306 sold recently

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Comments

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2023-08-30T08:04:07.418Z

Seems to have stabilized around 50 ref these past few days, varying between 49.88 and 50.11 for the most part. There are buyers at 50.11 at the moment, though I still put 49.88 as the low value due to sales at 49.88 in the last 60 minutes.

Sold:

Past 24 hours

109 @ 49.66 ref

36 @ 49.77 ref

252 @ 49.88 ref

96 @ 50 ref

154 @ 50.11 ref

50 @ 50.22 ref

19 @ 50.55 ref

6 @ 51 ref

Bought:

Past 24 hours

1 @ 49.77 ref

11 @ 49.88 ref

5 @ 50 ref

51 @ 50.11 ref

1 @ 50.22 ref

2 @ 51 ref

    Buyers are about to hit 49 ref. Don't think this price is passing.

    nature is healing!!!!

      there are a lot of buyers at 50-50.11 ref, your low end is probably going to be too low

        I was thinking that as well, but there are currently sellers at 49.77, which is lower than my low end as well. That might also naturally go back up possibly, as there have been purchases at this price earlier as well. It really just follows the pattern, as proved by the trade histories.

          uhh, I don't see any sellers at 39.77

            I meant 49.77, silly me, simple typo

              only 2 at 49.88 currently, they probably just haven't updated their prices yet :p

                Yeah most likely. Suggestion might be declined, I just feel it's pretty accurate based on sales history.

                  I mean, mods have already accepted key suggestions with more than a scrap difference, so anything's possible. However I'd still keep an eye on the market because there's a chance 50-50.11 ref might be better

                    50-50.11 is probably a better change, however if you look at the buyers, after page 1 the price drops dramatically so the ref price will probably drop again in a day or so. Really hope the ref price goes back up soon cause I can't make money selling ref anymore lol

        keys to the ground jajajaja

          The trend is going down even more, looking at the listings and gladiator.tf, it's looking closer to 49.55 - 50, even if there are occasionally buyers at 50.11, even that is statistically occurring less and less.

            Glad to see key prices continue to go down, let's make refined great again!

              The reason Key to Ref prices are going down is because mannco.store implemented a 1 cent take on items below 10 cents, which they didn't take before (the fee is 5% but before it wasn't applied to low tier items, so 3 cent ref meant 3 cents for the seller). The cost of bots/electricity went up so it had to be done. Since then (about 3 months ago) ref has gone up from 3 cents too 5 cents with 4 cents to the seller. When the implementation happened keys were selling at 70+ ref which meant that buying keys at 1.80-2.00 and trading for ref, then selling the ref meant massive profits on a large scale. This also affected marketplace price for ref and key price as well. It's why a rise of craft hat prices and other low tier items have seen a significant rise. But the thing is ref has no valid consumption so the cost of ref going up is a negative prospect for the economy of tf2.

                Interesting info, thanks!

                  That change did not impact the refined price in the slightest, the massive influx of new users from the new update did. The refined to cash market is incredibly small compared to the whole market. Also, the cost of refined going up is a sign of a healthy economy. Refined has as you say no good consumption but it does have a good usage. If the demand for all items skyrockets due to more players both resellers and new customers need refined at some point to buy the items they want(people that uses in-game currency needs ref to buy items directly and cash buyers rely on resellers that bought their items with in-game currency). If everyone is looking for refined to use as a currency at the same time, the active circulation of refined will take a hit thus driving the price up. What we are seeing is just a refined shortage, and it will become more balanced as time passes unless TF2 continues to get good updates that drives more players in. Then this trend will continue. So TLDR; refined increasing in price = sign of a healthy economy with more transactions taking place.

                    Interesting. You may be right about the influx of new players driving up the value of craft hats in real money, which would translate into Refined going up in real money as well. That would explain why the price of Keys in Refined is dropping.

                      Yes there was an influx of new players but prices of ref and other low tier items have been rising for months because of the 1 cent fee from mannco. The influx of players simply accelerated the pace. I am just saying that having to sell ref at 4-5 cents was the vehicle and the influx of players was the fuel that increased the pace of the general rise in prices. An example of this is Keys trading for 70 ref and the ability to sell that ref for 2.10 then buy a key for 1.80. This has decreased tremendously the past months due to the fee AND the influx of players/demand/sellers/etc like you said. I do disagree that refined going up is healthy though, refined will always increase in volume so it should decrease in price. I think a more stable measure of the health of the TF2 economy is TOD ticket price since they will always be consumed and maintain a stable price point in both dollar and ref value. TOD tickets hasn't gone up much in price with the influx of players so I agree the economy is in a good place rn.

                        So I guess my TL:DR is that I agree influx of players increased demand, but having to sell ref at 4 cents shortly before the rise in demand pushed prices up as well, just slower. You can see it in the early rise of 'random craft hat' price


                        Edit: example of the demand for ref can be seen in marketplace tf graph for ref (mannco is about the same simply because of lower traffic), some days hit 11K + ref sold lol

                          I still fail to see how you can argue that adding a fee on a rather small website(compared to the whole market) affects the refined market as much as you are stating. How many refined is being sold daily on mannco? Probably not that much in cash value. What is actually happening is that bots mainly is trying to keep their metal stock in check, and starts an undercutting battle on the classifieds. It's mainly accelerated by scripts, not websites in particular. When refined prices rapidly increase as they have done a cycle begins. Since they are priced in cents, once they start to push for another cent in value(lets say they go from $0.023 to $0.028) less people will be interested in flipping them for a mere $0.002 profit on cash sites. What then will happen is that the stock on refined will decrease on said websites, until there is a few select sellers that sees the chance to increase the price by a cent. When the profit margin suddenly becomes $0.012 instead, people will massdump keys for refined to deposit on the sites and the price of refined will increase even more. This cycle repeats itself until the market is slowing down due to lack of interest from customers. It's basic economics really, that the demand is pushing the price higher. The demand isn't created by cash sites, but they surely play a small role in enhancing the purchase of refined for those who are looking for that(which is rather nische - most customers don't deal with ref and prefer to either pay full cash directly or buy keys with cash) This is also taking place at the same time as bots needs to restock their supply of items to resell to customers, and they are running out of good items quickly since the demand for pretty much everything has gone up significantly, even if it is on a slight downtrend compared to a few weeks ago.


                          You are also saying that the ability to profit out of refined has decreased - that is the same as saying the demand for refined has decreased. For refined to go up in price the sell pressure on keys for refined needs to outweigh the buy pressure, which it has done these past couple of weeks. The only reliable way to amass refined at a large scale is by selling keys for refined and when everyone needs refined the undercutting will begin. Marketplace and Mannco merely serves as a proof that the demand for refined has indeed skyrocketed. If I am getting it right, mannco gave users $0.03 both before and after the tax despite the price increasing to $0.04 afterwards, so I fail to see how that would do anything for the demand for refined? Correct me if I'm not understanding it correctly but from what it looks like, you are stating that if the websites would add even more tax the price would shoot up? TOD tickets also aren't a good measure since they have a fixed price in the ingame store. I still believe a higher refined dollar value is a indicator that the economy is thriving. The only real use for refined is to transact with other items, so there is no other reason for it to increase in price unless it gets used more.


                          EDIT: also worth to mention that gladiator got back up a couple of weeks ago, and they have a lot of bots with tons of capital in them that wants to have ref so they can list buy orders. That surely helped to push the price even higher up when the overall demand slowed down slightly.

                            Mannco sells about 2k-3.5k ref a day, I think you are underestimating how many people buy/sell keys for ref and cash, for profit. Just the past month I was pulling out like 20-30 bucks a day buying keys trading for ref and then selling the ref before the demand for ref shot up and I am small potatoes. A 1 cent mandatory fee on mannco instantly increased the average ref price by a cent on the site, which does affect the overall market, however gradually. If it suddenly costs 5.32 cents (1.33 ref at 4 cents a ref) to buy a craft hat then that drives up the sell price. I just think you are underestimating how many people use these avenues for profit. You said 3 cents is the same profit with a 1 cent fee at 4 cents, the point was that at 70 ref a key (keys were around 1.80 at the time) thats a 30 cent profit per key and the more the process repeats the more the key to ref price drives down. We are basically arguing the same thing but from different angles. What I am saying is I see the basis of having to sell ref at higher prices as a catalyst for other items priced at X number of refined to go up, while you are saying that the demand for refined and/for low tier items due to the influx of players driving the price up. Both are happening. If the selling sites added more tax the price would go up but any more than 10% is foolish anyways so.. and yeah gladiator being able to make some people whole and get back online is a significant develpment as well. When I said that the ability to make money off refined has decreased I was talking specifically about buying a key to trade for ref and sell the ref, overall the price of ref at 1.94 a key is 0.0388 per ref so technically there is greater profits for ref trades, just not from keys atm. I think the TOD market is a better way to look at the health of economy because of the relatively stable price and consumed continuously. I mean mann co. supply keys also have a set price in the store so I'd say that the key price and TOD price is a solid way to measure the health of the economy.


                            Uh if I missed addressing any points or responses or anything mb. We are essentially arguing the same thing just from different angles.


                            Edit: Basically TL:DR you are saying the increased demand is driving prices up (key to ref down) and doesn't have much to do with a 1 cent fee because the overall market is far larger than the smaller lower tier market, I am saying the 1 cent fee initially added a 1 cent price to ref which drove prices up (and any item under 10 cents), and as the market adjusted we get the massive influx of players and gladiator comes back online. Just different angles.

                              Can't really see how mannco, that has nearly half the ref sales compared to marketplace causes the entire market to change lol.

                                2000 ref being sold at 1 cent higher is basically negligible when there's millions of ref in circulation

                                  And idk how prices changing on one site won't have an affect on various market correlations so its fine. People don't buy and sell items on different sites for profit I guess. I fed myself last 3 months off of magic and dreams.

                    49.66 sellers

                      Why does it take so long to just accept the price, jesus christ

                        When the market is unstable, mods prefer leaving it up just to see what happens to the market, to avoid accepting an inaccurate price

                        According to Gladiator.tf (https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2023-09-02T23:22:43.181Z)


                        Date and time: 3 September, 1:22


                        Most sales the past 7 days: 1162 @ 49.66 ref

                        Most buys the past 7 days: 218 @ 49.55 ref


                        Most sales the past 24 hours: 190 @ 49 ref

                        Most buys the past 24 hours: 531 @ 49.11 ref


                        --


                        According to Prices.tf (https://prices.tf/items/5021;6)


                        Date and time: 1 September, 6:50

                        Sales @ 49.77 ref

                        Buys @ 49.55 ref


                        Date and time: 2 September, 12:21

                        Sales @ 49.55 ref

                        Sales @ 48.88 ref


                        --


                        Prices still appear to be adjusting, so currently your suggestion seems out of range.

                          Sellers at 49.22–49.44 ref.


                          Buyers at 49.11, 49.55, 49.66, and 49.77 ref.

                            Currently, sellers at 49 and 49.11 ref. Buyers at 49.44 ref. Not exactly sure why the buyers seem to be higher, but still, keys have fallen slightly since this suggestion was made.

                            Both sellers and buyers are at 49.11 right now.

                              This is abjectly out of date and should be promptly closed. A perusal of buyer prices indicates this should not have been left up for this long and almost implies the hope of a mis-click. Downvote.

                                Oh crap, forgot to close the suggestion, thanks for reminder (though when I think about it, the people stating the new listing prices should have been the hint, though I guess I didn't get that they implied I should close it myself, I'm kinda dumb that way)